Cap-and-Trade Would Cut Thousands of Montana Jobs

Bozeman, Mont. — If pending federal climate change legislation is enacted, Montana would stand to lose between 4,964 and 6,761 jobs by 2030, according to a study released today by the Montana Policy Institute (MPI) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF).

The primary cause of job losses is lower industrial output due to higher energy prices, the high cost of complying with emissions cuts required by the legislation, and greater competition from overseas manufacturers. Among the hardest hit would be manufacturing jobs.

“As Congress considers far-reaching energy legislation that would impose an aggressive ‘cap-and-trade’ system, it’s important for us to examine what this means for Montana families and businesses,” said Carl Graham, president of the MPI. “It’s clear from these findings that the impact would be devastating for our economy – slashing jobs and reversing all the progress we’ve made, especially in the development of our state’s natural resources.”

The economic impact of this legislation on Montana is not isolated to jobs.

• By 2030, the average Montana family can expect the price of electricity to increase by up to 61 percent, gasoline 27 percent and natural gas 78 percent. Low income families and the elderly, who spend a disproportionate amount of their income on energy, will be especially hurt. Disposable income in Montana would fall by $414 to $764 in 2030.

• Under this legislation, Montana would experience a sharp decrease in manufacturing output, especially in nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing and primary metal manufacturing, important sectors for the Montana economy. The higher energy prices, fewer jobs and loss of industrial output under this legislation are estimated to reduce Montana’s gross state product (GSP) by as much as $900 million to $1.2 billion in 2030.

• State tax revenues would be reduced by as much as $65 million by 2030, forcing Montana policymakers to make hard choices about how to fund basic services, such as law enforcement, hospitals and schools.

Despite the current recession, recent employment figures demonstrate a promising trend. In the past ten years, employment in the Montana mining industry has grown 68.4 percent. In 2008, while the U.S. unemployment rate rose, Montana’s employment grew at a rate of 1.7 percent, and our state’s economy grew at a rate of 1.8 percent. If pending energy legislation were enacted, this continued growth would be impossible.

“Previous research about the impacts of this legislation on the national level found significant loss to gross domestic product. Montana, a state whose economy is tied to manufacturing and energy development, is particularly vulnerable to adverse impacts from this federal energy legislation,” said Margo Thorning, Ph.D., senior vice president and chief economist of the ACCF, who recently testified on Capitol Hill. “If pending federal energy legislation is enacted, the Montana economy will significantly decline and thousands of jobs will be lost.”

About the Study

The ACCF and the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) recently conducted a macroeconomic study examining the impacts of this legislation on the U.S. economy. This study is a deeper examination of those initial findings specific to Montana. This analysis was undertaken using a version of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the same tool used by the United States Energy Information Administration for its energy forecasting and policy analysis.

The study authors also explored both high- and low-cost scenarios to account for a wide range of assumptions regarding the likely cost and availability of new technologies, energy efficiency and renewable electricity standards, and domestic and international offsets.

This research examines the impact of H.R. 2454, known as Waxman-Markey, on Montana’s economy. Because the Senate version, (S. 1733) known as Kerry-Boxer, requires further emissions reductions, the economic impacts addressed in this research would be higher if that legislation were enacted.

This study is a joint project of the Montana Policy Institute (MPI) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF).


ACCF is a Washington, D.C.-based group which provides sound research to U.S. and international policymakers, the media and public. ACCF advocates for economic, regulatory and environmental policies that promote capital formation, economic growth and a higher standard of living for all.

The Montana Policy Institute is a nonpartisan policy research organization that equips Montana citizens and decision makers to better evaluate state public policy options from the perspective of free markets, limited government, individual rights and individual responsibility. To find out more visit us on the web at


Carl Graham


Montana Policy Institute

Phone : (406) 219-0508 Montana Policy Institute

67 W Kagy Blvd Ste. B

Bozeman, MT 59715

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